It seems like to be a fact that:

if a team has a higher puck possession and more goal chances, then they have a higher chance of winning the game.

The one metric that is always shown on scoreboards is Shots on goal (SOG), that gives a rough idea of player’s or team’s puck possession, created chances and offensive productivity, as well as the effectiveness of the opposing team’s goaltender in making saves and preventing goals.

A high number of shots on goal (SOG) can lead to a goal soon in ice hockey for several reasons:

1. Increased scoring chances: The more shots a team takes, the more opportunities it has to score goals.
2. Wear and tear on the goaltender: A high volume of SOG can tire out the opposing team’s goaltender and make it more difficult for them to make saves.
3. Rebound opportunities: Shots on goal that are not initially stopped by the goaltender may create rebound opportunities for the shooting team to follow up and score.
4. Pressure on the defense: A high number of SOG can put pressure on the opposing team’s defense to clear the puck and prevent scoring chances. This can lead to mistakes and turnovers that create additional scoring opportunities.

In this article, we want to see how often an NHL team with higher SOG wins the game based on past seasons’ results. Here is the analysis of past three NHL seasons in regular season games:

Season	#Games	#Games that team with higher SOG won	#Games that team with NOT higher SOG won
2019-2020	1271	464 (37%)	807 (63%)
2020-2021	868	418 (48%)	450 (52%)
2021-2022	1312	684 (52%)	628 (48%)

This means that not only high SOG doesn’t guarantee scoring a goal, but also it shows that either there is no correlation between SOG and chance of scoring or even a team with higher SOG would lose at the end.

Here are some reasons why a high number of shots on goal (SOG) may not always lead to a goal soon:

1. Goaltending: The opposing team’s goaltender may be able to make saves and prevent goals, even if the shooting team takes a high number of SOG.
2. Shot quality: The quality of the shots a team takes can also play a role in whether or not they result in goals. If a team is taking low-percentage shots from poor angles or areas of the ice, they may be less likely to score even if they take a high number of SOG.
3. Physical play: A team may be able to take a high number of SOG, but if it is unable to create good scoring chances due to physical play from the opposing team, it may struggle to convert those shots into goals.
4. Luck: Sometimes, even the best-placed shots may not go in due to factors such as bad bounces or deflections that are out of a team’s control.

Overall, a high number of SOG does not always guarantee a goal soon in ice hockey, as there are many other factors that can influence whether or not a team is able to score.